We are heading in to the final month of the home and away season. How fast has this season gone? How good has this season been? We hope it stays this way for the duration as fans, we truly have been treated to a special year of AFL football.
Two teams that know how to handle the pressure and expectation of this time of year are Hawthorn and Sydney, the clubs having shared 4 of the past 5 premierships between them. In fact, every Grand Final since 2011 has featured one if not both of Hawthorn and Sydney.
While it appears highly unlikely the Hawks will feature in the big dance in 2017, the recent form of the Swans would suggest they are every chance to keep that Grand Final anomaly going, having won 10 of their past 11 games to turn a 0-6 start to the season in to a 10-7 record, seeing them hold sixth spot on the ladder, just a game off the top four.
The only team John Longmire’s men have lost to since the start of their inspired run is the Hawks, a late Jarryd Roughead goal sinking the Swans in the dying moments. It was the second consecutive game decided by a goal or less between the sides, and you wouldn’t bet against another one at the MCG on a Friday night to commence round 19. Here is a full preview of the round.
QUITE A RIVALRY: Hawks Luke Hodge and Isaac Smith celebrate a goal in the 2014 AFL Grand Final against Sydney. SOURCE: SEN.
Hawthorn v Sydney
Neither of these teams are ready to accept mediocrity. In fact, they could have had the quickest rebuilds in footballing history.
The Swans started the year at 0-6, the Hawks marginally better at 1-5. When both suffered demoralising losses on the same afternoon in round 6, the black pen was out to put a line through both clubs and their finals chances for 2017.
What’s happened since has been nothing short of remarkable, the Hawks accepting the need to bring in the next generation of stars in order to start building for another tilt at premiership glory. Youngsters such as Blake Hardwick, James Sicily (minus his blow up with Taylor Duryea), Ryan Burton, Daniel Howe and Billy Hartung have all shown significant improvement this season, giving supporters something to get excited about in regards to the club’s future.
Unfortunately their poor start means they are unlikely to feature in finals football in 2017, sitting a game and half plus percentage outside of the top eight with just five matches remaining. A loss here will see them almost certainly out of finals contention, but they certainly won’t go down without a fight.
The Swans have been mighty in recent weeks. After unconvincing wins over Richmond and Essendon, they have been dominant in brushing each of their opponents aside. Their only challenge in recent weeks has come against Greater Western Sydney, but the team was able to hold off their local rival and secure another superb win.
Everyone knows the Swans style of football stands up to the rigours of finals football, which makes this form as a pre-cursor to September particularly ominous. Sydney Captain Josh Kennedy plays his 200th AFL match, having started his career at Hawthorn, his Grandfather one of the legends of the Hawthorn football club and his father also an ex Hawks player.
It’s all set up for two arch rivals to battle it out in another MCG epic on a Friday night, with the entire football world watching. You know both teams will thrive on the occasion, and it should be another fantastic contest. The Swans are travelling just a little bit better than the Hawks, who are coming off a six day break heading back from Perth. Sydney by 11 points.
North Melbourne v Melbourne
A win here, and Melbourne fans can almost lock in finals. Not only that, they can dream of a top four finish. Wow, all Christmas’s have come at once for Dees fans!
Last week’s win over the Power was particularly impressive, set up by a dominant first 45 minutes of the match at the MCG. Port simply couldn’t get going, due to Melbourne’s pressure and intensity around the contest and ability to spread from stoppages. It was a mature performance from Simon Goodwin’s team, which bodes well for further challenges that lie ahead.
On paper this seems a straightforward assignment against 17th placed North Melbourne, but as Melbourne supporters will tell you nothing is straightforward with the competition’s oldest club.
A closer look at the Dees record against the Roos shows they haven’t beaten the boys from Arden Street since 2006, having lost the past sixteen matches against North Melbourne. SIXTEEN! Well, I guess all streaks are meant to be broken at some stage.
That streak will have to end outside of Melbourne however, with this match being played at Blundstone Arena in Hobart. The teams played out an epic high scoring encounter last season, 41 goals shared between the teams on a windy April afternoon, the Roos securing a nervy five point win.
Melbourne are certainly better placed now, North Melbourne a shadow of the team that knocked off the Dees by 14 points in round 9 this year. Brad Scott’s men welcome back big man Braydon Preuss for the first time since round 4, along with club best and fairest Robbie Tarrant and captain Jack Ziebell. Debutants against the Dons last week Josh Williams and Nick Larkey (knee) go out, Larkey suffering the ignominy of failing to touch the football on debut. Cameron Zurhaar also makes way.
Melbourne go in unchanged, and look primed to break their duck against the Roos, ironically on a ground famous for ducks over the years. No one mention last year’s Test match against South Africa please. Melbourne by 31 points.
WELCOME INCLUSION: Melbourne co-captain Jack Viney was integral on return to the team last Saturday against Port Adelaide. SOURCE: Fan Footy.
Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle
The Giants have hit a wall. With just one win in their past 6 matches (against bottom placed Brisbane) the AFL’s newest club is in danger of sliding out of the top four should it not recover it’s best form immediately.
The Tigers deserved their win over the Giants last Sunday at a wet MCG, but Leon Cameron’s team will be disappointed they let a good start to the game slip, kicking the game’s opening 3 goals before failing to add to their tally until the 17 minute mark of the third quarter.
Richmond tellingly beat the more talented Giants around the contest, which will sting the team from Sydney’s west in to action this weekend, facing a fading Fremantle on their home patch.
They will have to do it without Shane Mumford, who is set to miss a fortnight with an ankle niggle. Steve Johnson’s body appears to be almost giving up on him, as he misses with knee soreness. Toby Greene is out suspended after his latest brain snap, while ex-Docker Tendai Mzungu has been dropped, meaning he won’t get a chance to play his old side.
The news is better for Matt DeBoer, who will face his old club after overcoming a concussion that saw him miss the Tigers clash. Dawson Simpson replaces Mumford, while ex-West Aussie Stephen Coniglio returns from an ankle complaint. Jeremy Cameron completes the list of inclusions, adding some potency up forward.
The Dockers have struggled for goalkickers yet again in 2017, leading goalkicker Michael Walters gone for the season with a knee injury. Cam McCarthy has a chance to impress against his old side, and will need to have a big game if Fremantle are to cause what would be a huge upset.
Ross Lyon has made four changes at selection, two forced due to injury with Lee Spurr (calf) joining Walters on the casualty list. Luke Ryan and Brennan Cox return after their post Derby drinking indiscretion saw them relegated to the WAFL, along with Brady Grey and Cameron Sutcliffe.
Just can’t see the Dockers kicking a big enough score against the Giants, they would have to reduce the game to one hell of an ugly scrap in order to win it. GWS to bounce back with an important win. Greater Western Sydney by 34 points.
Port Adelaide v St Kilda
Oh Port Adelaide. How you must frustrate your supporters. Does anyone actually support them though? Remember when the Power home games had tarpaulin sheets to cover all the empty seats at Football Park? Good times.
Yet another loss against a genuine contender last week left the football world scratching their heads. Can a team that is 5th on the ladder actually be no good? On the body of work put together so far this season, it would suggest they are a mediocre side capable of beating the teams around them, but not above them.
The Power remarkably sit just a game outside of the top four despite their inability to beat a quality side, which makes every game from here vitally important if they are to give themselves the pivotal double chance.
Losing Chad Wingard for at least a month of football hurts Ken Hinkley’s side, but Jasper Pittard adds some run off half back as he regains his place in the side. Jack Hombsch strengthens the defence in replacing youngster Logan Austin, who was found wanting against Logan Austin last week.
The Saints lose more than 700 games experience for the trip to South Australia, losing Leigh Montagna (hamstring), Nick Riewoldt (managed) and Koby Stevens (groin) all ruled out. Tim Membrey comes back to add some potency up forward.
While the Saints could cause an upset here, their form on the road has been disappointing in recent seasons, having failed to win at the venue in 7 starts. On top of that, their average losing margin at the venue is 62 points, having never got within 5 goals of either the Crows or the Power.
It suggests it may be a tough afternoon for Alan Richardson’s team, the former Power coach (for one game in 2013) unlikely to have a happy return to the city of churches. Power for me, but it won’t change my opinion of them. Port Adelaide by 28 points.
FAR FROM POWERFUL: Port Adelaide players head off the MCG after their 23 point loss to Melbourne last week. SOURCE: The Advertiser.
Gold Coast v Richmond
Richmond fans shudder every time someone mentions the Gold Coast. Nice holiday destination, not such a good football team. Remember the Cairns experiment? Well that was an unmitigated disaster for the Tigers, who won one of the three matches they played against the Suns at the venue.
The Tigers face the Suns at Metricon Stadium for just the second time in their history, Gold Coast winning the round 1 2014 encounter between the sides by 3 goals.
The Tigers are now inside the top four, an incredible achievement considering their 13th placed finish in 2016 with just 8 wins for the season. To recover from a slow start to beat the Giants was perhaps their finest victory of the season to date, and gives long suffering Tigers supporters a reason to dream big in 2017.
However, a bit of perspective is needed. Despite their current predicament, the boys from Punt Road have not won a final since 2001, having lost three consecutive elimination finals from 2013-15. They must continue their season of improvement and promise to remain a chance in September, and can’t afford a slip up against a Gold Coast side in 15th spot on the table and no chance of playing finals football.
This is the game the old Richmond would drop in a heartbeat, but you feel there is more resilience in this group in 2017. They will have to beat the Suns without the services of Jack Riewoldt (eye) who injured himself at training during the week, while former Sun Dion Prestia will not face his former side due to knee soreness.
Bachar Houli returns from THAT suspension to give some run off half back, along with ex Giant Anthony Miles and youngster Shai Bolton. Gary Ablett is back for the Suns to continue his week on-week off pattern of recent games, while the club will unveil it’s 9th club debutant of the season, with young defender Max Spencer named to face the Tigers.
Reckon this game will be quite close and hard fought, the Suns a far better team at home. The Tigers simply have too much to play for in this one, and will edge out the home side in the closer of the two Saturday night games. Richmond by 8 points.
Carlton v Geelong
Of all the results that surprised in round 18, the most surprising was the performance of Carlton. Unfortunately for Blues fans, it was an unwelcome surprise, as the Lions dominated the first half kicking 12 goals to 3, setting up an eventual 30 point win.
It was a game that no doubt the young Carlton side had marked down as a win going on their marked improvement in 2017, but they were simply outclassed by a faster, more skilful Lions outfit.
It seems the Blues have encountered a similar problem to 2016, where they hit a road block late in the season after a period of marked improvement through the middle stages of the year. The challenge now is to remain competitive for the remainder of the season and avoid thrashings that became all too commonplace in 2015.
It won’t be easy against a Geelong side that will be looking for a response after a poor performance on the road in Adelaide, and an angry Geelong is an scary proposition for any side, let alone the lowly placed Blues.
Utility Mark Blicavs is out with an ankle injury sustained against the Crows, while Steven Motlop has been managed after a quiet month of football. Daniel Menzel is out with general soreness after copping a couple of knocks last week, Zac Guthrie and Rhys Stanley both dropped after quiet games in round 18. Veteran Andrew Mackie and young forward Wylie Buzza headline the inclusions.
The Blues welcome back two talls for the contest, Caleb Marchbank and Simon White returning to the side at the expense of Harrison McCreadie and Nick Graham.
The Blues won the last meeting between the sides in a shock result in round 10 last year, but at this stage of the year the Cats very rarely slip up against weaker opposition. The boys in navy blue and white hoops to beat the boys in navy blue and white. Yep, I just confused you didn’t I? Geelong by 32 points.
BIG LOSS: Mark Blicavs may miss the remainder of the home and away season with an ankle injury sustained last weekend. SOURCE: Geelong FC.
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Huge game this one for both sides. If there is one spot up for grabs in the eight, you reckon it will be filled by one of these two teams. The Dons currently occupy 8th spot on the table, and a win here will see them somewhat secure heading in to the final four matches of the season.
A loss to the Dogs will give their opponents some hope of making finals, and with West Coast expected to beat Brisbane in the final game of the round there is simply no room for error here for the Dons.
Should the Bulldogs go down their premiership defence may have a line in permanent marker put through it, despite a relatively soft draw in the run home. They did what they had to do against the Suns, Liam Picken the unlikely star inside forward 50 with a career best 6 majors.
They need to beat a quality team though to convince people they are capable of making something of this frustrating season, and a game against the Dons looms as the perfect place to start. Premiership players Tory Dickson and Fletcher Roberts could return, while Travis Cloke appears set to return after battling mental health issues in recent weeks.
The Bombers appear the more settled outfit and could go in to the match unchanged, coming off a hard fought, high scoring win over North Melbourne last week. Cale Hooker was the star with 5 goals, 4 of those coming in the final quarter. He plays his 150th game, the West Australian having found a permanent home up forward in 2017.
Will be a fast paced game under the roof at Docklands, and one of the games of the round. The Dogs could revive their season with a win here, and I’m backing them to do just that. Western Bulldogs by 19 points.
MILESTONE MAN: Cale Hooker plays game 150 against the Western Bulldogs on Sunday. SOURCE: SBS.
Collingwood v Adelaide
Anyone for the Pies winning 3 in a row? Nope, didn’t think so. Maybe some die hard Collingwood fans give them a chance, and the fact the game is in Melbourne helps, but the Crows are top of the table and flying towards September and the coveted double chance.
The Pies have had two solid if not slightly fortuitous wins, defeating an undermanned Gold Coast in the wet before sneaking past West Coast in an epic comeback last Sunday that probably said more about the Eagles than it did about the black and whites.
They will have to go to another level to beat the Crows, despite missing star forward Eddie Betts and midfielder Brad Crouch due to injury. Jake Lever will also miss at least another week with a hamstring concern, meaning Alex Keath will get another chance to impress after a solid enough debut against the Cats.
The Pies will unveil a son of a gun this weekend, with Josh Daicos, son of premiership champion Peter to debut against the Crows. In Multicultural round, the son of the man known as ‘The Macedonian Marvel’ donning the black and white guernsey for the first time seems apt for the occasion. Travis Varcoe misses with a nasty elbow injury sustained in the win over the Eagles last week.
The Pies can keep their mathematical finals chances alive with a win here, and beating the Crows would certainly give their fans something to get excited about. But Adelaide don’t fear the MCG like some other interstate teams, which is ominous for Victorian teams come September. Adelaide by 16 points.
West Coast v Brisbane
The Bradd Dalziell-Elliot Yeo cup completes round 19 at Subiaco Oval, the Eagles having faced a week of extensive media scrutiny following their horrific final quarter fade out against Collingwood.
Up to 12 changes to the list have been mooted as West Coast’s season appears to be on the slide, one of their warriors announcing his retirement on Friday. 2014 Brownlow medallist Matt Priddis announced his intentions to call it a day at the end of 2017, despite having a contract with the club for 2018. As it does for some footballers, the end has come quicker than expected for the 235 game veteran, his body hitting a wall in the second half of this season.
West Coast fans will have to wait another fortnight to cheer on one of their favourite sons after he was ruled out of the fixture with a quad injury, Lewis Jetta also out with a sore calf. Luke Partington will finally make his AFL debut, after averaging 28 disposals and a goal in the game for East Perth in the WAFL. There might have been a lynch mob had he missed out, given everything that has been said about the Eagles this week.
Brisbane had a most impressive win over Carlton last week, but lose their best player in Dayne Zorko to suspension for the trip West, also deciding to rest youngsters Hugh McCluggage, Eric Hipwood and Jarrod Berry. Daniel McStay will also miss the match, leaving the Lions short of tall defenders.
Josh Kennedy looms large, having kicked 6 goals in his 200th AFL game last Sunday. Jack Darling could also have a big day, while Mark LeCras needs to respond after heavy criticism from Eastern states media during the week.
If West Coast can’t dispose of Brisbane on their home patch, they may as well pack up and head off on their end of season trip come Monday morning. Their season will be over should they lose here. They should win, but we won’t learn anything new about them from this fixture. West Coast by 45 points.
AN EAGLES GREAT: 2014 Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis announced his retirement on Friday, effective at the end of this season. SOURCE: ABC.
By Jacob Landsmeer.
Jacob Landsmeer is a sports broadcaster on 91.3 Sport FM in Perth. He blogs here at zombiecrowscricket. Follow him on Twitter: @jlandsme_93
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